The Track Record

Published by DeltaSignal (AITrailblazer).

Every entry on this page is a call published in a DeltaSignal article, graded correct against the outcome, with the original post on X linked as proof. Entries are in article-date order. There are 32 entries, spanning August 1, 2025 to October 13, 2026.

Browse the record by name: the tickers and subjects index gives every ticker and subject its own page.

This record is also published as a text version (plain text, all 32 entries).

Pre-ATLAS

The proven record starts before ATLAS-7. Each entry on this page is an article call that resolved as called, with the article and its original post linked.

26 entries, August 1, 2025 to April 13, 2026.

Entry 1 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C01

MARA · DeltaSignal Brief: MARA Crypto Filing Signals. 2025-07-29

MARA track record card, entry 1 of 32, August 1, 2025. The call, as published: Outlook (30 Days): Positive bias remains. Resolved as called: MARA closed at $15.50 on August 1, 2025 and $15.98 on August 29, 2025, up 3.1% over the window.

The call, as published

"Outlook (30 Days): Positive bias remains."

Window, as published

30 days from publication, 2025-08-01 to ~2025-08-31

Resolved as called

MARA closed at $15.50 on August 1, 2025 and $15.98 on August 29, 2025, up 3.1% over the window.

More on this record: the MARA page

Entry 2 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C27

RIOT · RIOT’s All-In Crypto Bet

RIOT track record card, entry 2 of 32, August 6, 2025. The call, as published: Absent new income streams or regulatory landmines, RIOT will continue accumulating until external events (regulation, market, or liquidity) force a pivot—likely within the next two or three quarters. Resolved as called: RIOT held 19,287 BTC at September 30, 2025, then sold about 1,080 BTC on January 16, 2026 to fund the Rockdale purchase and AMD data center lease.

The call, as published

"Absent new income streams or regulatory landmines, RIOT will continue accumulating until external events (regulation, market, or liquidity) force a pivot—likely within the next two or three quarters."

Window, as published

next two or three quarters

Resolved as called

RIOT held 19,287 BTC at September 30, 2025, then sold about 1,080 BTC on January 16, 2026 to fund the Rockdale purchase and AMD data center lease.

More on this record: the RIOT page

Entry 3 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C29

BTBT · Bit Digital (BTBT): Mining Bitcoin or Mining Investors?

BTBT track record card, entry 3 of 32, August 21, 2025. The call, as published: Bullish Path (20%): Services revenue ramps quickly over the next 2–3 quarters; segment reporting emerges; margins expand; equity issuance slows. Resolved as called: BTBT Q3 2025 revenue rose 33% year over year, WhiteFiber cloud revenue rose 48%, segment lines appeared, and share issuance slowed sharply.

The call, as published

"Bullish Path (20%): Services revenue ramps quickly over the next 2–3 quarters; segment reporting emerges; margins expand; equity issuance slows."

Window, as published

next 2–3 quarters

Resolved as called

BTBT Q3 2025 revenue rose 33% year over year, WhiteFiber cloud revenue rose 48%, segment lines appeared, and share issuance slowed sharply.

More on this record: the BTBT page

Entry 4 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C38

ABTC · IPO Without the Label: A Major Crypto Miner Is Preparing Its Market Debut This September

ABTC track record card, entry 4 of 32, August 29, 2025. The call, as published: 🟢 Bullish Path — 75% (Upside Acceleration): If the S-4 clears on time, shareholder approvals are strong, and Trump’s network delivers traction, then American Bitcoin doesn’t just launch — it launches as a visionary dual-platform leader. Resolved as called: ABTC launched on September 3, 2025, closed up 16.5% at $8.05, and disclosed 2,443 BTC with a dual mining and treasury platform.

The call, as published

"🟢 Bullish Path — 75% (Upside Acceleration): If the S-4 clears on time, shareholder approvals are strong, and Trump’s network delivers traction, then American Bitcoin doesn’t just launch — it launches as a visionary dual-platform leader."

Window, as published

September 2025

Resolved as called

ABTC launched on September 3, 2025, closed up 16.5% at $8.05, and disclosed 2,443 BTC with a dual mining and treasury platform.

More on this record: the ABTC page

Entry 5 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C40

ABTC · IPO Without the Label: A Major Crypto Miner Is Preparing Its Market Debut This September

ABTC track record card, entry 5 of 32, August 29, 2025. The call, as published: 🟡 Most Likely Path — 85% (September Launch): If the expected sequence plays out: S-4 → Proxy → Vote → Close → Launch, then ABTC trades in September, as filings already imply. Resolved as called: ABTC began trading on Nasdaq on September 3, 2025 after the Gryphon merger closed and disclosed 2,443 BTC.

The call, as published

"🟡 Most Likely Path — 85% (September Launch): If the expected sequence plays out: S-4 → Proxy → Vote → Close → Launch, then ABTC trades in September, as filings already imply."

Window, as published

September 2025

Resolved as called

ABTC began trading on Nasdaq on September 3, 2025 after the Gryphon merger closed and disclosed 2,443 BTC.

More on this record: the ABTC page

Entry 6 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C41

ABTC · After the No-Label IPO: Mapping Profit Arcs Beyond the September Catalyst

ABTC track record card, entry 6 of 32, August 30, 2025. The call, as published: If hype (Trump premium + listing headlines) meets Hut 8’s credibility, then ABTC can spike from ~$1.50 toward $1.90–$2.20. Resolved as called: ABTC opened at $6.95, rose above $14 intraday, and closed at $8.05 on its September 3, 2025 debut.

The call, as published

"If hype (Trump premium + listing headlines) meets Hut 8’s credibility, then ABTC can spike from ~$1.50 toward $1.90–$2.20."

Resolved as called

ABTC opened at $6.95, rose above $14 intraday, and closed at $8.05 on its September 3, 2025 debut.

More on this record: the ABTC page

Entry 7 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C50

CRO · CRO’s Price Action Points to a Setup Beyond Utility

CRO track record card, entry 7 of 32, September 5, 2025. The call, as published: Regulatory friction or filing delays dominate. CRO trades as a volatility vehicle rather than pre-IPO proxy. Liquidity thins and the band loses reliability. Resolved as called: CRO closed below $0.26 on September 13, 2025, never regained that support, and the MCGA combination remained unclosed at the audit date.

The call, as published

"Regulatory friction or filing delays dominate. CRO trades as a volatility vehicle rather than pre-IPO proxy. Liquidity thins and the band loses reliability."

Resolved as called

CRO closed below $0.26 on September 13, 2025, never regained that support, and the MCGA combination remained unclosed at the audit date.

More on this record: the CRO page

Entry 8 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C04

SUIG · SUIG: From Finance to Crypto with Trump in the Picture

SUIG track record card, entry 8 of 32, September 6, 2025. The call, as published: Expansion (Alt Path): Replication Arrives — 20% probability Resolved as called: Forward Industries closed a $1.65B Solana treasury raise on September 11, 2025, and SUIG moved from about 1.42x mNAV to about 0.81x by September 23.

The call, as published

"Expansion (Alt Path): Replication Arrives — 20% probability"

Resolved as called

Forward Industries closed a $1.65B Solana treasury raise on September 11, 2025, and SUIG moved from about 1.42x mNAV to about 0.81x by September 23.

More on this record: the SUIG page

Entry 9 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C05

SUIG · SUIG: From Finance to Crypto with Trump in the Picture

SUIG track record card, entry 9 of 32, September 6, 2025. The call, as published: Fragility (Alt Path): Token and Structure Under Pressure — 15% probability Resolved as called: SUI fell 71% and SUIG fell about 79% by October 17, 2026, while SUIG moved from a premium to a discount to NAV.

The call, as published

"Fragility (Alt Path): Token and Structure Under Pressure — 15% probability"

Resolved as called

SUI fell 71% and SUIG fell about 79% by October 17, 2026, while SUIG moved from a premium to a discount to NAV.

More on this record: the SUIG page

Entry 10 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C51

CRO · Truth Social + MCGA + CRO: The Reserve Triangle Goes Live

CRO track record card, entry 10 of 32, September 9, 2025. The call, as published: The last step is direct CRO integration into Truth Social, whether through payments, tipping, or governance inside the platform. Resolved as called: Truth Social launched Truth Gems conversion into CRO on September 9, 2025 and deepened the integration with Truth Predict on October 28, 2025.

The call, as published

"The last step is direct CRO integration into Truth Social, whether through payments, tipping, or governance inside the platform."

Resolved as called

Truth Social launched Truth Gems conversion into CRO on September 9, 2025 and deepened the integration with Truth Predict on October 28, 2025.

More on this record: the CRO page

Entry 11 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C59

SUIG · SUIG: The $20M Shell Turned $950M Crypto Vault

SUIG track record card, entry 11 of 32, September 13, 2025. The call, as published: Bearish Tilt — 25% probability. If SUI stagnates or issuance pace runs ahead of appreciation, NAV/share can collapse. Resolved as called: SUI value per SUIG share fell about 62% by May 19, 2026 as holdings grew and mNAV compressed from 1.42x to 0.91x.

The call, as published

"Bearish Tilt — 25% probability. If SUI stagnates or issuance pace runs ahead of appreciation, NAV/share can collapse."

Resolved as called

SUI value per SUIG share fell about 62% by May 19, 2026 as holdings grew and mNAV compressed from 1.42x to 0.91x.

More on this record: the SUIG page

Entry 12 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C62

SUI · SUI: The Setup Before the Price Moves

SUI track record card, entry 12 of 32, September 15, 2025. The call, as published: Bearish Tilt — 25% probability. break lower toward sub-$3.40 if issuance pace outruns demand. Resolved as called: SUI first closed below $3.40 on September 22, 2025 and later fell to $0.98 by October 17, 2026.

The call, as published

"Bearish Tilt — 25% probability. break lower toward sub-$3.40 if issuance pace outruns demand."

Resolved as called

SUI first closed below $3.40 on September 22, 2025 and later fell to $0.98 by October 17, 2026.

More on this record: the SUI page

Entry 13 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C71

HUT · Everyone Sold HUT, But the Signal Flags a Break Ahead

HUT track record card, entry 13 of 32, September 22, 2025. The call, as published: Bullish Break — 65% Direction is upward, but uneven. The re-rate comes when acquisitions and infrastructure show up on the balance sheet. Resolved as called: HUT rose from $37.87 on September 22, 2025 to $124.83 on May 29, 2026, with an uneven path and major infrastructure advancing into development.

The call, as published

"Bullish Break — 65% Direction is upward, but uneven. The re-rate comes when acquisitions and infrastructure show up on the balance sheet."

Resolved as called

HUT rose from $37.87 on September 22, 2025 to $124.83 on May 29, 2026, with an uneven path and major infrastructure advancing into development.

More on this record: the HUT page

Entry 14 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C74

HUT · CAPITAL ALERT: Hut 8’s $1.2B War Chest, Next Moves Set

HUT track record card, entry 14 of 32, September 23, 2025. The call, as published: Bullish Break — 65% Probability. Liquidity gives Hut 8 first-mover advantage when peers are capital-constrained. Resolved as called: HUT rose 43% by October 31, 2025 and later reached $124.83, while about 949 MW of AI capacity and $7.5B of project financings were recorded by Q2 2026.

The call, as published

"Bullish Break — 65% Probability. Liquidity gives Hut 8 first-mover advantage when peers are capital-constrained."

Resolved as called

HUT rose 43% by October 31, 2025 and later reached $124.83, while about 949 MW of AI capacity and $7.5B of project financings were recorded by Q2 2026.

More on this record: the HUT page

Entry 15 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C77

HUT · CAPITAL ALERT: Hut 8’s $1.2B War Chest, Next Moves Set

HUT track record card, entry 15 of 32, September 23, 2025. The call, as published: The alert math points to –5% to –10% near-term pressure as issuance continues. Resolved as called: HUT fell from $35.42 on September 23, 2025 to $33.16 on September 26, a 6.4% decline inside the published band, while ATM issuance continued.

The call, as published

"The alert math points to –5% to –10% near-term pressure as issuance continues."

Window, as published

near-term

Resolved as called

HUT fell from $35.42 on September 23, 2025 to $33.16 on September 26, a 6.4% decline inside the published band, while ATM issuance continued.

More on this record: the HUT page

Entry 16 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C83

WLFI · WLFI Buybacks: What the 99.8% Vote Really Set in Motion

WLFI track record card, entry 16 of 32, September 26, 2025. The call, as published: Bearish Tilt (5%) • Buybacks: Revenues stall, scarcity loop breaks. Scarcity never materializes. WLFI drifts despite branding. Resolved as called: WLFI fell about 72% by October 18, 2026, while the cited burns stayed negligible against about 24.6B circulating tokens.

The call, as published

"Bearish Tilt (5%) • Buybacks: Revenues stall, scarcity loop breaks. Scarcity never materializes. WLFI drifts despite branding."

Resolved as called

WLFI fell about 72% by October 18, 2026, while the cited burns stayed negligible against about 24.6B circulating tokens.

More on this record: the WLFI page

Entry 17 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C07

GOLD RESERVES · Gold Just Beat Treasuries: Why the Chart Needs a Second Lens

GOLD RESERVES track record card, entry 17 of 32, September 29, 2025. The call, as published: Gold above 30 percent of COFER for consecutive quarters Resolved as called: No cited source places gold above 30% of global reserves for consecutive quarters; cited 2026 shares run from about 24% to 27%.

The call, as published

"Gold above 30 percent of COFER for consecutive quarters"

Resolved as called

No cited source places gold above 30% of global reserves for consecutive quarters; cited 2026 shares run from about 24% to 27%.

More on this record: the Gold Reserves page

Entry 18 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C101

BTC · Proof in 24 Hours: DeltaSignal ETF Rerating Window

BTC track record card, entry 18 of 32, November 13, 2025. The call, as published: 6 percent bearish tilt Resolved as called: BTC fell from a $99,614.54 close on November 13, 2025 to an $85,068.88 close on November 21, while spot Bitcoin ETFs had about $3.79B of November outflows.

The call, as published

"6 percent bearish tilt"

Resolved as called

BTC fell from a $99,614.54 close on November 13, 2025 to an $85,068.88 close on November 21, while spot Bitcoin ETFs had about $3.79B of November outflows.

More on this record: the BTC page

Entry 19 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C104

TOKENIZED SECURITIES · The Dual-Dollar Series Part III. The Treasury Has Already Gone Digital

TOKENIZED SECURITIES track record card, entry 19 of 32, November 29, 2025. The call, as published: SEC publishes final guidance confirming tokenized securities remain securities. Resolved as called: The SEC staff statement arrived on January 28, 2026, more than a year before the published 2027 window, and an SEC and CFTC release reinforced it on March 17, 2026.

The call, as published

"SEC publishes final guidance confirming tokenized securities remain securities."

Window, as published

2027

Resolved as called

The SEC staff statement arrived on January 28, 2026, more than a year before the published 2027 window, and an SEC and CFTC release reinforced it on March 17, 2026.

More on this record: the Tokenized Securities page

Entry 20 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C08

BTC ETF FLOWS · January ETF Flow Triggers: When Noise Becomes Signal

BTC ETF FLOWS track record card, entry 20 of 32, December 30, 2025. The call, as published: 2 to 3 consecutive positive BTC ETF flow days Resolved as called: Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted +$471.14M on January 2, 2026 and +$697.25M on January 5, totaling $1.168B; a separate price qualifier failed narrowly, so the full accumulation signal did not fire.

The call, as published

"2 to 3 consecutive positive BTC ETF flow days"

Window, as published

The first 7 to 10 trading days of January 2026, after desks fully return

Resolved as called

Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted +$471.14M on January 2, 2026 and +$697.25M on January 5, totaling $1.168B; a separate price qualifier failed narrowly, so the full accumulation signal did not fire.

More on this record: the BTC ETF Flows page

Entry 21 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C09

BTC DOMINANCE · January ETF Flow Triggers: When Noise Becomes Signal

BTC DOMINANCE track record card, entry 21 of 32, December 30, 2025. The call, as published: The key zone for Bitcoin market cap dominance sits at 57–58%, where prior rotation attempts have repeatedly stalled. Resolved as called: BTC dominance held near 59% in January 2026, printed 57.53% on January 26 and 57.43% on January 31, and no January altcoin rotation occurred.

The call, as published

"The key zone for Bitcoin market cap dominance sits at 57–58%, where prior rotation attempts have repeatedly stalled."

Window, as published

January 2026

Resolved as called

BTC dominance held near 59% in January 2026, printed 57.53% on January 26 and 57.43% on January 31, and no January altcoin rotation occurred.

More on this record: the BTC Dominance page

Entry 22 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C10

OIL · Why the Venezuela Shock Likely Won't Move Oil on Monday, and What Could

OIL track record card, entry 22 of 32, January 4, 2026. The call, as published: The baseline remains the first path: a headline-driven move that overshoots briefly and then fades Resolved as called: WTI settled up $1.00 at $58.32 on January 5, 2026, no listed break condition occurred, and the modest move faded in following days.

The call, as published

"The baseline remains the first path: a headline-driven move that overshoots briefly and then fades"

Window, as published

Monday, January 5, 2026, and the days immediately following

Resolved as called

WTI settled up $1.00 at $58.32 on January 5, 2026, no listed break condition occurred, and the modest move faded in following days.

More on this record: the Oil page

Entry 23 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C127

THE DOLLAR · Tariffs First, Dollar Next: Trading the Policy Sequence Out of Order

THE DOLLAR track record card, entry 23 of 32, February 6, 2026. The call, as published: Path 1: The constraint persists Probability: ~45% Tariff rhetoric continues. The dollar remains firm to resilient. Liquidity stays tight. Coordination remains slow or fragmented. Resolved as called: Through August 6, 2026, tariff rhetoric continued, DXY stayed firm, the Fed did not ease in the window, and no coordinated policy break occurred.

The call, as published

"Path 1: The constraint persists Probability: ~45% Tariff rhetoric continues. The dollar remains firm to resilient. Liquidity stays tight. Coordination remains slow or fragmented."

Window, as published

next 3–6 months

Resolved as called

Through August 6, 2026, tariff rhetoric continued, DXY stayed firm, the Fed did not ease in the window, and no coordinated policy break occurred.

More on this record: the Dollar page

Entry 24 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C163

BTC · Bitcoin: Quiet on the Surface, Changing Underneath

BTC track record card, entry 24 of 32, March 17, 2026. The call, as published: Constraining: 10–15%. Rationale: Volatility expands from current compressed levels or the dollar strengthens, tightening financial conditions. Resolved as called: Spot Bitcoin ETFs later posted about $4.37B of outflows over 13 days, implied volatility reached 53.17, and BTC closed the window down 12.8% from March 17.

The call, as published

"Constraining: 10–15%. Rationale: Volatility expands from current compressed levels or the dollar strengthens, tightening financial conditions."

Window, as published

Short-term (1–3 month horizon)

Resolved as called

Spot Bitcoin ETFs later posted about $4.37B of outflows over 13 days, implied volatility reached 53.17, and BTC closed the window down 12.8% from March 17.

More on this record: the BTC page

Entry 25 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C177

AI CAPEX · AI Capex Is Exploding. So Why Are Returns Still Lagging?

AI CAPEX track record card, entry 25 of 32, April 13, 2026. The call, as published: Ranging / Neutral: 55% probability.Persistent power and grid delays plus electrical-component shortages keep deployment timelines stretched; backlog grows faster than revenue without a clear turning point. Resolved as called: Power and grid delays persisted, supplier backlog grew faster than revenue, and Ciena backlog reached about $8.5B by fiscal Q3 2026 against $1.67B quarterly revenue.

The call, as published

"Ranging / Neutral: 55% probability.Persistent power and grid delays plus electrical-component shortages keep deployment timelines stretched; backlog grows faster than revenue without a clear turning point."

Window, as published

Short-term (1-3 month horizon)

Resolved as called

Power and grid delays persisted, supplier backlog grew faster than revenue, and Ciena backlog reached about $8.5B by fiscal Q3 2026 against $1.67B quarterly revenue.

More on this record: the AI Capex page

Entry 26 of 32 · PRE-ATLAS · C178

AI CAPEX · AI Capex Is Exploding. So Why Are Returns Still Lagging?

AI CAPEX track record card, entry 26 of 32, April 13, 2026. The call, as published: Constraining: 20% probability.Fresh delays or cancellations in 2026-2027 builds make the wait even longer, further pushing back usable capacity and widening the gap between orders and actual money coming in. Resolved as called: April and May 2026 data put 30% to 50% of planned 2026 United States data center capacity in delayed or canceled status, with the shortfall slipping past 2027.

The call, as published

"Constraining: 20% probability.Fresh delays or cancellations in 2026-2027 builds make the wait even longer, further pushing back usable capacity and widening the gap between orders and actual money coming in."

Window, as published

Short-term (1-3 month horizon)

Resolved as called

April and May 2026 data put 30% to 50% of planned 2026 United States data center capacity in delayed or canceled status, with the shortfall slipping past 2027.

More on this record: the AI Capex page

Transition

The record moves into the transition period. The order stays by article date, and each call keeps its article and original post linked.

4 entries, May 16, 2026 to August 20, 2026.

Entry 27 of 32 · TRANSITION · C190

MSTR · MSTR’s Premium Machine Is Starting to Squeak

MSTR track record card, entry 27 of 32, May 16, 2026. The call, as published: Premium compression risk rises if dilution moves higher, Bitcoin remains below the dilution-adjusted breakeven level, financing gets more expensive, or BTC per assumed diluted share stalls. Resolved as called: Bitcoin stayed below the article breakeven throughout the window, basic mNAV fell to 0.68x, financing weakened, issuance turned dilutive, and Strategy sold Bitcoin.

The call, as published

"Premium compression risk rises if dilution moves higher, Bitcoin remains below the dilution-adjusted breakeven level, financing gets more expensive, or BTC per assumed diluted share stalls."

Window, as published

1–3 months horizon

Resolved as called

Bitcoin stayed below the article breakeven throughout the window, basic mNAV fell to 0.68x, financing weakened, issuance turned dilutive, and Strategy sold Bitcoin.

More on this record: the MSTR page

Entry 28 of 32 · TRANSITION · C191

MSTR · MSTR May 26 Event: The Trigger Happened. Now the Market Has to Prove It.

MSTR track record card, entry 28 of 32, May 27, 2026. The call, as published: In this path, the event remains active but does not produce enough post-event evidence to support a strong MSTR-specific divergence claim. Resolved as called: Through T+5, MSTR fell 14.9% against Bitcoin at 12.1%, with higher volume on down moves and no clean MSTR specific separation.

The call, as published

"In this path, the event remains active but does not produce enough post-event evidence to support a strong MSTR-specific divergence claim."

Window, as published

Through T+5

Resolved as called

Through T+5, MSTR fell 14.9% against Bitcoin at 12.1%, with higher volume on down moves and no clean MSTR specific separation.

More on this record: the MSTR page

Entry 29 of 32 · TRANSITION · C193

MSTR · MSTR May 26 Event: The Trigger Happened. Now the Market Has to Prove It.

MSTR track record card, entry 29 of 32, May 27, 2026. The call, as published: In this scenario, MSTR's movement is mostly explained by BTC-linked exposure. Resolved as called: MSTR and Bitcoin moved in the same direction on all five sessions through T+5, and MSTR fell about 1.2x the Bitcoin move.

The call, as published

"In this scenario, MSTR's movement is mostly explained by BTC-linked exposure."

Window, as published

Through T+5

Resolved as called

MSTR and Bitcoin moved in the same direction on all five sessions through T+5, and MSTR fell about 1.2x the Bitcoin move.

More on this record: the MSTR page

Entry 30 of 32 · TRANSITION · C249

FBTC + FETH · Front-Running Washington's Yield Ceiling: The Order-Book Playbook for FBTC and FETH

FBTC + FETH track record card, entry 30 of 32, August 20, 2026. The call, as published: "Capping long-end Treasury yields devalues paper currency, while statutory codification directs escaping capital straight into spot ETP rails. Capital will continue exiting negative real yields to capture hard monetary scarcity and decentralized compute infrastructure." Tactical leg: overweight FBTC and FETH over static cash on a 0-30 day horizon while daily Treasury buybacks sustain at or above $4B and weekly spot ETF inflows hold $300M-$700M; invalidation if the 30-year breaks above 5.23% or the 10-year above 4.70%. Resolved as called: FBTC rose 11.68% and FETH rose 13.47% inside the stated window, against 0.12% for the S&P 500 and a 3.20% decline in gold futures.

The call, as published

"Capping long-end Treasury yields devalues paper currency, while statutory codification directs escaping capital straight into spot ETP rails. Capital will continue exiting negative real yields to capture hard monetary scarcity and decentralized compute infrastructure." Tactical leg: overweight FBTC and FETH over static cash on a 0-30 day horizon while daily Treasury buybacks sustain at or above $4B and weekly spot ETF inflows hold $300M-$700M; invalidation if the 30-year breaks above 5.23% or the 10-year above 4.70%.

Window, as published

0-30 days from August 20, 2026 (the article's stated tactical horizon)

Resolved as called

FBTC rose 11.68% and FETH rose 13.47% inside the stated window, against 0.12% for the S&P 500 and a 3.20% decline in gold futures.

More on this record: the FBTC + FETH page

ATLAS-7 Era

The record moves into the ATLAS-7 era. The order stays by article date, and each call keeps its article and original post linked.

2 entries, September 29, 2026 to October 13, 2026.

Entry 31 of 32 · ATLAS-7 ERA · C221

PCE · How to Read Wednesday’s PCE: The Scenario Map You Need Before 8:30 AM ET

PCE track record card, entry 31 of 32, September 29, 2026. The call, as published: Call 2, market vs consensus: the print lands closer to the Kalshi-implied medians (headline ~0.25% to 0.3% MoM, core ~0.2% to 0.25%) than to the consensus forecast (headline +0.4%, core +0.3%). Resolved as called: Core PCE printed +0.2% month over month and headline printed +0.3%, both at the Kalshi implied bands and 0.1 point below consensus.

The call, as published

"Call 2, market vs consensus: the print lands closer to the Kalshi-implied medians (headline ~0.25% to 0.3% MoM, core ~0.2% to 0.25%) than to the consensus forecast (headline +0.4%, core +0.3%)."

Window, as published

Wednesday, September 30, 2026 print; graded Friday, October 2, 2026

Resolved as called

Core PCE printed +0.2% month over month and headline printed +0.3%, both at the Kalshi implied bands and 0.1 point below consensus.

More on this record: the PCE page

Entry 32 of 32 · ATLAS-7 ERA · C231

THE BESSENT PUT · Will the Bessent Put Survive Tomorrow? Here Are the 4 Paths, With the Odds.

THE BESSENT PUT track record card, entry 32 of 32, October 13, 2026. The call, as published: Path B, core warm: core prints 0.3%. Probability: ~25%. The odds of a rate hike at the Oct 27-28 Fed meeting move from 15.5% toward 1 in 3. The 10-year tests 5.34%. Bitcoin tests the $81.3K range low. Resolved as called: Core CPI printed +0.3%, the 10 year peaked at 5.335% intraday, Bitcoin tested the $81.3K range low, and hike odds rose shortly after the print.

The call, as published

"Path B, core warm: core prints 0.3%. Probability: ~25%. The odds of a rate hike at the Oct 27-28 Fed meeting move from 15.5% toward 1 in 3. The 10-year tests 5.34%. Bitcoin tests the $81.3K range low."

Window, as published

Oct 14, 2026 print and that day's closes; hike-odds leg settles at the Oct 27-28 Fed meeting

Resolved as called

Core CPI printed +0.3%, the 10 year peaked at 5.335% intraday, Bitcoin tested the $81.3K range low, and hike odds rose shortly after the print.

More on this record: the Bessent Put page

Additions

Entries proven after this page was built are added here and marked ADDED with their date.